Tag: NeverFeartheDream

Posted in Philosophy

Be in the Moment, Not Captured by It

Posted on by simplebender

There is something really special about living in the moment. Being present for those you love or embracing a euphoric moment. There is also something bad about being so consumed by it you are captured and lose your perspective. Animals live only in the moment. Those without a future live only in the past. Those who can’t face reality live in their delusional dreams of the future.

By viewing life from a Janusian perspective you can reflect on your past, be in the moment, and see where your actions are taking you. Look at your past with a dispassionate eye, neither overly positive nor negative. The future won’t surprise you if you take time to see where you are going based upon what you are doing. Doing so will give you a better perspective of moment and your future.

It is so easy to be immersed in the moment. To be enveloped by the experience, good or bad. To be wrapped up in the euphoria of quick gain or titillating emotions. Or you are thrown into despair by sudden loss or penetrating grief. The moment is precariously, and precisely, set between your past and your future. Your actions now are based on what you’ve done and are putting future events into action. Recognize the risks and opportunities as you are enveloped by the present moment. Find something in the moment you enjoy, regardless of how distasteful or unpleasant. You get to choose how you respond to the events and people. But remember how you react sets tomorrow’s stage.

Learn from your past and then let go, you cannot change it. Don’t dream of a future, make one. Relish the moment. It only happens once and is fleeting. But be wary of losing yourself in its allure and possible evil seduction. #NeverFearTheDream

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Posted in Favoites

Fix America’s Broken Windows

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When you own a factory, you don’t tear it down when you have a few broken windows. You fix the windows. But if you don’t fix them, your neighbors and passersby know you are in trouble. You appear not to care or are incapable of fixing your problems. Soon there will be more broken windows, as your factory falls further and further into disrepair.

America is like a factory. A sprawling dynamic complex with many buildings and a lot of windows. Unfortunately, the American Factory has a few broken windows, and a very few really want to fix them. The majority want to spend a lot of time, money, and energy yelling and pointing fingers at issues which might not really be of much value. They focus on hate generated topics like ‘woke’, transgender, and LGBTQ. These are issues reflecting differences of opinion and personal preference. The vocal body focuses on the fabrication of election rigging conspiracies and the undercutting of our election and judicial systems. Why do we find the time to breed hate but not understanding?

We don’t make time to prioritize fixing the broken windows of fentanyl, mental health, or the homeless. Others may see other broken windows, yet if we can fix these the other windows might not be broken, just cracked and chipped and much easier to repair.

Annually, tens of thousands of Americans are dying by overdose and their families broken because of it. The addiction is fueling our homelessness crisis and filling our streets with refuse and discarded, broken, human beings, as well as our morgues. The mental health crisis feeds drug abuse and is disproportionately impacting minorities and under-educated. These are our broken windows. We seem only interested in sweeping up the glass off the factory floor and not willing to focus upon fixing the windows. It doesn’t matter who broke the window, or maybe not even how; but we must fix them lest more are broken.

We don’t want to solve the problem, nor face it. We want to blame someone. It’s easy to cast blame and harder to fix the problems. It’s easy to blame the southern border immigrants for breaking the window. But, have you looked at the immigrants; really looked. They are carrying a few clothes in shoddy backpacks and their children, not pounds and pounds of drugs. Stop blaming them and start looking for and solving the real cause; us. Consider, information from DEA, ICE, and DHS (1);

  • 90% of fentanyl seizures are at legal border ports of entry, not immigration routes;
  • Over 90% of those seizures are from U.S. Citizens, not immigrants;
  • Less than 0.02% of arrested immigrants possessed any fentanyl;
  • U.S. citizens exceed 85% of the convicted drug traffickers, ten times greater than convictions of undocumented immigrants.

Ultimately, fentanyl smuggling is funded by us, U.S. citizens, the consumers. If we want to stop the fentanyl problem, let’s start asking why so many of us are becoming addicted. Why are so many taking these opioid drugs in the first place? What pain, emotionally or physically, what desperation, is so great they require these intoxicants to cope? Answering, ‘How did we get here?’ might help us fix the window before more lives are destroyed.

If we have time to focus on hate and festering ego issues, with legislators paralyzed by radical party extremes we have time to fix windows. These are shining examples of why the American Factory windows are being broken faster and faster. Our neighbors see us as a decaying, broken factory which cannot address our own real problems mired in dysfunctionality. Put partisan rhetoric aside, face the big problems, and at least be seen trying to fix the windows rather than trying to tear down the factory. #NeverFearTheDream

(1) www.cato.org/blog/fentanyl-smuggled-us-citizens-us-citizens-not-asylum-seekers

This article was first published in the Bend Bulletin 10/24/23

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Posted in Favoites

Joy In Alzheimer’s

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Prologue

Let’s just be honest; there is no joy in Alzheimer’s; however, Joy, my mom, is in the middle of it….so ‘Joy In Alzheimer’s’ is where we are. This is an attempt to follow her through this unwinnable battle. To open-up about how the mental disease affects her and those who care and love her. So, how did her long journey down a narrowing path come to this point. A path which no longer has a safety net. Where every stumble, on her old uncertain legs and weakened mind, can lead to uncontrolled dementia and deep dark recesses.

Joy’s road, like most with Alzheimer’s, started long before anyone really knew. My dad passed away over 15 years ago and since then Joy has lived alone. My nephew and his family lived nearby for several years. To their credit they reported subtle changes in her mental abilities. Being remote, the rest of the family dismissed the observations as ‘she’s just getting older’. Six years ago, we moved her from her west Texas home of over 50 years to an independent living facility in central Oregon. Now closer, we could see some subtle changes which age alone couldn’t explain. Three falls, with head injury, just compounded the problem. She began to lose the ability to pay bills and her ‘book-keeping’ went from taking a few hours to taking a few weeks.

We took her to a neurologist under the pretext of getting a baseline assessment after her third fall. The appointment went well. The neurologist wasn’t overly concerned with her cognitive test results. The diagnosis changed at the next appointment six months later. The doctor was concerned with the delusional episodes, the money management deterioration, but the illustration below sort of tipped the scales.

Within six months we had moved her to an assisted living facility, before the independent one was forced to ask us to move her. That’s where she is now and has been for over a year and a half; even though she’ll tell you she just moved in and has changed apartments five or six times, and the entire complex has been rotated around several times.

This was the start of our journey with her down that long narrowing path. We have found humor, character, courage, and sadness along the way. I’m sure we will find more as we continue. These will be the stories I tell, and I’m always interested in comments and support as we try to help each other. We are all on journeys and we shouldn’t judge the paths we are all on. We should just extend a hand and help. You never know, you might be the safety net so many of those with Alzheimer’s and those who are their care partners really need.

The Full story of Joy in Alzheimer’s can be found at:

Joy in Alzheimer’s: My Mom’s Brave walk into dymentia’s abyss

NeverFearTheDream simplebender.com @simplebender.bsky.social Stand For Truth

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Posted in Current Events

It’s coming…Brace for Impact…Next Recession

Posted on by simplebender

The winds of the storm continue to raise the waves and tide crashing on our horizon. While a large body of economists and political leaders have sounded the ‘all-clear’ for a recession. To avoid one, regardless of the intensity, will have to buck historical financial trends and the current state of the economy. The historically reliable bond rate comparison indicates a recession is likely and the forecast indicates before mid-year 2024. Maybe that’s why the ‘all-clear’ has been signaled, it is too far out in time.

The FRED recently updated the U.S. Recession Probability curve (Are we in a recession (yet)? | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)) waving the green flag. With the August 2023 update FRED is posting a probability of a recession being almost negligible. Look closely at the graph, all the recessions (grey areas) have gone from 0% to 100% probability in a matter of months, not quarters. That’s like saying the chance of rain is 100% only if you are getting wet; otherwise it’s a sunny day.

There are other economic headwinds buffeting the markets. The Business confidence index has fallen to its lowest point since July 2020 after climbing out of the COVID slump.(Leading indicators – Business confidence index (BCI) – OECD Data). Juxtaposed to the Consumer Confidence Index which has risen steadily from a low in July 2022 (Leading indicators – Consumer confidence index (CCI) – OECD Data).

Unemployment remains low, which is good, but complicates the historical model analysis. While inflation has dropped it remains stubborn to further decline. The FED continues to tighten the interest rate with at least a few more increases expected. Banks are reluctant to issue loans to individuals and small companies. Smaller companies are being forced into a leveraged position by using private equity companies at elevated payment requirements. Even more simply, consumers are cutting back big ticket items, home purchases, higher end grocery items, travel, and gifts. Spending money on only what is needed, not just wanted. Credit cards are being excessively leveraged and delinquencies are increasing. The personal financial tsunami waiting to happen with those bills, plus extraordinarily high interest rates, could be devastating.

There is good financial news too. Inflation is down from its earlier highs in the last few years. As well as the supply chain, it is finally unwinding.

A predictive tool which has shown remarkable accuracy is plotting the difference between the US Treasury 10 Year and the 3 Month Yield. When the difference of these becomes negative, or ‘inverts’, has been an accurate indicator of an upcoming period of recession for over the last 40+ years.

The dip below the red line are the periods when the 3 Month yield was greater than the 10 Year. This graph is from 1/1983 thru mid September 2023.

Further analysis of this graph is seen below. The ovals highlight the inversion periods. The outlined columns illustrate the periods of U.S. recessions from 1983. The correlation between the two is remarkably consistent. Since 1983, there is a recession every time after the correction of an inversion.

Taking this analysis, the one logical step most shy away from in a publication, is to forecast the correction point of the current inversion. A complex Time-Series model using end of week close yield data for the time frame 1983 to mid-September 2023 results in some interesting insight. Keep in mind, as with all models, the information should be used only as ‘insight’ and a guide. The ‘red’ curve is the actual result of the basic subtraction of the two yields. The ‘aqua’ curve is the time-series analysis. The correlation between the two curves is a satisfactory R^2 of +0.95.

The forecast shows the re-cross into normal positive territory in March 2024. Therefore, based on historical trends, we should expect a recession, to some degree, within six months from then. As with all numerical models, there is a degree of uncertainty. In this model the upper error limit showed a ‘zero line’ re-cross in January 2024 and the lower error limit re-cross in mid-May 2024. It’s not a matter of if the inversion will be corrected, only when. After which, will history be repeated, or will this be a significant anomaly? I’m betting on history and hoping for a soft gradual landing. Forewarned is forearmed. Make wise decisions. #NeverFearTheDream

Posted in Philosophy

Third Promise…Never Make Assumptions

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Third of a four-part series based on “The Four Agreements – A Toltec Wisdom Book”, by Ruiz

There are four personal promises which might transform your life. This is the third of these promises. Promise to:

Your third personal promise –Never make assumptions:

Clear communication with others, at best, is complicated and difficult. Be curious and courageous by asking them questions without making assumptions. Don’t think you know the width and breadth of their comments without asking them questions. The real danger of assumptions is we believe they are true without discovery. They are based on your experience and are likely to be significantly different than the speakers’ intent and direction.

The sadness and drama we witness, and experience is rooted in us making assumptions and taking things personally (breaking our second promise). It is always better to listen empathically and ask questions rather than setting yourself up for pain by assuming. We see and hear what we want to based on our experiences, motivations, and fear. We don’t want to hear anything contrary. We perceive things the way we want , not necessarily how they really are or how others see them.

Our biggest assumption is believing everyone sees life the same way as ourselves. Assume they think the way we think, feel and judge the same way. Or worse yet, we believe they should. Assuming our common experiences overshadow our uncommon ones, which are the ones which make us unique in a society. We must ask and probe to uncover peoples’ real meaning and intent. We simply cannot assume what they are.

Making assumptions in a relationship is more likely to result in conflict rather than accord. They will lead to more misunderstandings, difficulties, and suffering with those we care for than anyone else. We must have the courage to ask them questions before we embark on justifying and explaining to make ourselves feel safe. Make them feel safe first by truly understanding their intent and meaning. You shouldn’t fear being yourself with your loved ones. Love them unconditionally. We are all different and our task isn’t to change them but accept them; as we want them to accept us.

Keep yourself focused on not making assumptions by practicing asking questions and being interested; not judgmental. As you begin to learn how easy it can be to ask questions you will find it easier to ask for what you want as well. Everyone has the right not to answer your questions, but you will never really know unless you initiate the questions.

UP NEXT: DO YOUR BEST, ALWAYS       #NeverFearTheDream

Posted in Philosophy

Four Personal Promises: Second…. Take Nothing Personally

Posted on by simplebender

Second of a four-part series based on “The Four Agreements – A Toltec Wisdom Book”, by Ruiz

There are four personal promises which might transform your life. This is the second of these promises. Promise to:

  • Choose your words carefully;
  • Take nothing personally;
  • Never make assumptions;
  • Do your best, always.

Your second personal promise –Take nothing personally:

This world doesn’t revolve around you. It just doesn’t. Your delusional perspective of your personal importance is an expression of your selfishness. What others do and say is a reflection of their reality, which you should respect, but don’t assume it has anything to do with you.

By taking things personally you set yourself up for failure, suffering, abuse, easily become prey, and suffer for nothing. You unnecessarily absorb the pain of others reality. By taking things personally you feel offended and therefore must defend yourself and your beliefs. But do you really have to? If you keep your promise you will acknowledge those words reflect the speaker not you. They probably didn’t keep their first promise which means you must keep your second.

Your point of view is yours just as theirs is theirs. Their words don’t have to be your truth and certainly not worth getting mad or angry about. Getting mad, angry, and defensive discloses your fears and insecurities. Their words have affected you because you choose to let them, not because you are the target. You choose to be a victim. Rather, listen and try to assess what is behind their words. What is making them angry and upset. Don’t add to it by trying to defend yourself.

Watch people and determine if their words follow their action; or are they just lying to you. Don’t expect people to always tell the whole truth, sometimes it’s just too painful, doesn’t fit their agenda, or they are just afraid. If they are lying, there is clearly no reason for you to take what they say personally.

The caveat to this promise is: if your actions or words have caused them pain, suffering, or damage you need to accept responsibility. You need to acknowledge you’ve hurt them, personally, and in fact you must take their words personally and make restitutions.

UP NEXT: NEVER MAKE ASSUMPTIONS       #NeverFearTheDream

Posted in Philosophy

Four Personal Promises

Posted on by simplebender

First of a four-part series based on “The Four Agreements – A Tolec Wisdom Book”, by Ruiz

There are four personal promises which might transform your life. Easily made and so hard to keep; like most promises. These promises are to yourself for yourself. No one will know if you’ve kept them or not; only you, and you are the only one who counts. Promise to:

  • Choose your words carefully;
  • Take nothing personally;
  • Never make assumptions;
  • Do your best, always.

Your first personal promise –Choose your words carefully:

The words you speak or write reflect you for all the world to hear and see. Say what you mean; not what you think others want to hear. Express the truth without deriding or belittling anyone, especially yourself.

Your words are your power. They can build as easily as they can destroy. They are your force in the world. Your power to communicate and express your beliefs and opinions. But remember, they are your beliefs and opinions, not others. They are formed from your experiences, your beliefs, your aspirations, and especially by your ego.

Your words can be enduring, so be careful. Those who hear and read your words are absorbing and growing. They are trying to grow and learn just as you are. Your words can be thoughtful, inspiring, and uplifting. They can also be shallow, self-serving, hateful, and spread fear. There is enough of the later and not enough of the former. If your words spread hate, maybe just maybe you should keep them to yourself.

They are swords which can cut deeply in both ways. On one side the edge of truth and dignity. On the other, hate and lies. As you wield your sword be keenly aware of which blade is cutting. You are responsible for choosing your words. If your words express hope, support, and are uplifting you show yourself honorable and a person of integrity. If your words spread gossip, or seek revenge, you are showing the world your pettiness and shallowness. You are responsible for when and where you brandish your sword. Reflect upon your words before you express them. Choose your words carefully as they become you to others. You will be revered or reviled both at the same time. If you’ve chosen well with impeccability, you won’t have any regrets. Choose to hold your tongue rather than force others to hold their ears. #NeverFearTheDream

Posted in Communication

Defend the Freedom to Read

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Freedom to Read is an inalienable right. A right inherent and integral to the freedom of the press. Freedom to read allows all citizens access to the marketplace of ideas. The freedom of expression and the press falls mute when freedom to receive the material is repressed.

This right is under attack by those who want to control what is available for us to read. They endeavor to protect their comfort and their right to choose while sacrificing everyone else’s. Everyone’s liberty to choose, to seek knowledge and information, as well as the investigation of ideas should be respected. Those who believe contrary ideas should be banned are dangerous people. They are those who cannot deal with controversy and the whole truth. Information is power. Writings are torches in the darkness.

Those who choose to ban and censor books and print are destined for disappointment. You cannot ban and censor ideas forever. Ideas have a fire unto themselves which is uncontrollable and inextinguishable. They will emerge. They will grow. The victors write history, not the vanquished. The story of the conquered eventually is told and the victors held accountable when the whole truth is known. Those who choose to try to control, ban, and censor today should be prepared for the inevitable reversal of fate. This is a sad vicious cycle which should never have started. But it is a cycle which we can resist and one which must be stopped. It is contradictory to profess support of Freedom of the Press and simultaneously restrict and ban publications.

Stand up; defend and exercise your freedom to read, your freedom to write, your freedom to express individual thoughts and ideas. Encourage open publication and distribution without fear of the censor’s blade. Only when citizens explore the full range of human thought and emotion, weighing all perspectives in the balance, can we truly govern ourselves and claim our democratic birthright. Let’s openly, respectfully, grapple with challenging ideas and controversial subject matter. Push yourself to be uncomfortable, very uncomfortable. Then draw your own conclusions. Conclusions based on broad thoughts, not narrow ones. Information wants to be free. It cannot forever be restrained or repressed. Be brave, be willing to defend expression of ideas, regardless of how much you disagree with them. Resist those in power who want to try to extinguish this flame by censorship and banning. Support the authors who persist. Those who write the truth to, and in spite, of power. Those who present ideas and options to the masses, and let them think it all through. Read for pleasure, adventure, insight, and intrigue, but always fiercely defend the Freedom to Read. #NeverFearTheDream

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Posted in Political

Scapegoat Politics: Clear Sign of Shallow Policy

Posted on by simplebender

Scapegoat politics is a clear sign there is no positive, problem-solving agenda associated with the candidate or party. It is a simple means of distraction and diversion. Propagation of blame, fear, hate, and misinformation. Casting blame is an insidious, malicious, and effective way to avoid confronting today’s real systemic problems. Politicians, leaders, candidates, and people in general who practice it aren’t worthy of our support. They are either afraid to confront critical issues or don’t have any idea how to address them, without risking the rath of their cult like followers. Simply, they follow the practice of:  if you can’t solve it find someone to blame and be relentless in the accusations.

Scapegoating isn’t new. It’s been hyper-weaponized courtesy of the many mass media venues. Hitler had the Jews. He had no idea how to solve Germany’s hyperinflation and the crumbling living standards. But he had the Jews to blame for all of it. Syria’s Assad and Turkey’s Erdogan both have the Kurds, poor Kurds, to blame all their domestic calamities upon. They have suffered brutal consequences as a result.

Domestically, we are no different and our critical issues receive scant lip service. The Conservatives deride wokeness, China, and liberal ‘fake news’. Progressives blame ills on police unions, the 1%ers, and corporate greed. Florida’s Governor vilifies the LGBTQ’s and immigrants. The past executive energized hate toward the immigrants, even though he himself is one generation away. And today, he is scapegoating the DOJ while narcissistically playing the victim while fleecing his flock. Whining about unsupported claims of the past to shield to deflect against his own actions, indictments, and convictions.

You cannot solve problems by blaming others. It demonstrates a leadership devoid of forward thought, problem-solving, and critical thinking. We need to identify and address the real problems. We should seriously confront and address systematic, institutionalized, racism. Where’s the action toward eliminating mass shooting and gun violence? All the ‘thoughts and prayers’, shallowly offered, are falling on deaf and dead ears. Addiction and death related to illicit fentanyl and prescription opioids is killing us. Where is the hard look at why so many of our neighbors are addicted and abusing drugs? Rather than focus on the problem, it is easier to blame and demonize southern immigrants. Forget the fact most of them are escaping violence and terror and only a scant few are smugglers.

The scapegoat du jour is the LGBTQ community. Attacking a group because they aren’t like you and you don’t understand them. Blaming and viciously attacking them on embellished accusations of child grooming and abuse. If legislators really want to address this issue, they could start by focusing on the authoritarian leadership of the Catholic and Southern Baptists. These have a long well documented history of child molestation and abuse. This would require extreme courage and risk of losing political power. So, don’t expect anything but more Gay Bashing and book banning. It’s so much easier and politically safe.

Political failure and shallow policy making can be measured by increasing authoritarianism, and scapegoating. Used to mobilize the uninformed and easily manipulated. Stop blaming and start addressing critical issues. Take responsibility, be accountable, and confront serious issues sans scapegoating. Those political figures who won’t stop blaming others and using them as diversions don’t deserve our support; none of them. #NeverFearTheDream