Category: Current Events

Posted in Current Events

Systematic Suppression and Decimation of the LGBTQ Community

Posted on by simplebender

Systematic suppression is the intentional and structured ways in which specific marginalized communities are denied rights, opportunities, and resources, leading to their disenfranchisement and inequality with the intent of rendering them non-existent. We have a front-row seat to watch many acts of suppression, from voting rights, immigration, women’s rights, and self-determination. Unconscionable as it might be, we watch acts of suppression accelerate daily. But what is even more concerning is America’s silent crisis—the systematic marginalization and decimation of our LGBTQ community, a pressing issue that demands our immediate and unwavering attention.

You don’t have to engage in direct violence to cause harm to a community. The deliberate restriction of social, legal, and support structures can inflict pain, suffering, and even death to suppress a group. Like enabling discriminatory organizations, you don’t have to be directly involved. Quietly supporting or endorsing legislative intolerance and withholding services can be just as damaging. This community only wants to live with the same protections and rights that all of us should have and expect.

Throughout history, various institutions and organizations have used a cornucopia of justifications to discriminate against minority groups. We are witness to similar patterns in the treatment of the LGBTQ community, where personal beliefs are being used to justify discrimination and denial of fundamental rights.

You may not agree with or approve of the LGBTQ community’s identity or lifestyle. It might even be repulsive, and it’s your right to have those perspectives. But that doesn’t give anyone the authority or right to work toward their marginalization, neglect, and exclusion. There are many more pressing issues to deal with. But, we are easily distracted and misdirected, so we target minorities and create issues where they aren’t. Unfortunately, we are all a part of some minority which might be the next target. You can try to soften it, call it something else, or close your eyes, but there is a fine line between decimation and genocide. This is America’s silent crisis, our silent genocide. It is the systematic suppression of a community within our community, and people are suffering because of it. People’s social structures, personal rights, and medical options are being destroyed and restricted only because some have taken it upon themselves to impose their personal views on others. While currently, the acts of physical violence may be isolated they still exist and are horrible. In addition, people are still being harmed through isolation, discrimination, and denial of fundamental rights. The youth within this community is 4.3 times more likely to attempt suicide than there straight friends. A quarter of this community has tried to kill themselves as compared to 6% of heterosexuals. This group is not just part of our community; they are individuals with hopes, dreams, and rights. These are people and they are being pushed to the brink. These are your neighbors, and amongst many things they are parents, clergy, first responders, care-givers, spiritual leader, legislators, educators, business owners, engineers, artists, authors, farmers, students, industry leaders, and on and on. This group isn’t the enemy. It is an integral thread of our lives tapestry and a critical part of our future. This community should not be silenced or erased, and efforts to do so should not be tolerated or excused. Let people live their lives; maybe everyone will let you live yours with the same dignity and respect.

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This was first published in the Bend Bulletin 3/5/25

Posted in Current Events

It’s coming…Brace for Impact…Next Recession

Posted on by simplebender

The winds of the storm continue to raise the waves and tide crashing on our horizon. While a large body of economists and political leaders have sounded the ‘all-clear’ for a recession. To avoid one, regardless of the intensity, will have to buck historical financial trends and the current state of the economy. The historically reliable bond rate comparison indicates a recession is likely and the forecast indicates before mid-year 2024. Maybe that’s why the ‘all-clear’ has been signaled, it is too far out in time.

The FRED recently updated the U.S. Recession Probability curve (Are we in a recession (yet)? | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)) waving the green flag. With the August 2023 update FRED is posting a probability of a recession being almost negligible. Look closely at the graph, all the recessions (grey areas) have gone from 0% to 100% probability in a matter of months, not quarters. That’s like saying the chance of rain is 100% only if you are getting wet; otherwise it’s a sunny day.

There are other economic headwinds buffeting the markets. The Business confidence index has fallen to its lowest point since July 2020 after climbing out of the COVID slump.(Leading indicators – Business confidence index (BCI) – OECD Data). Juxtaposed to the Consumer Confidence Index which has risen steadily from a low in July 2022 (Leading indicators – Consumer confidence index (CCI) – OECD Data).

Unemployment remains low, which is good, but complicates the historical model analysis. While inflation has dropped it remains stubborn to further decline. The FED continues to tighten the interest rate with at least a few more increases expected. Banks are reluctant to issue loans to individuals and small companies. Smaller companies are being forced into a leveraged position by using private equity companies at elevated payment requirements. Even more simply, consumers are cutting back big ticket items, home purchases, higher end grocery items, travel, and gifts. Spending money on only what is needed, not just wanted. Credit cards are being excessively leveraged and delinquencies are increasing. The personal financial tsunami waiting to happen with those bills, plus extraordinarily high interest rates, could be devastating.

There is good financial news too. Inflation is down from its earlier highs in the last few years. As well as the supply chain, it is finally unwinding.

A predictive tool which has shown remarkable accuracy is plotting the difference between the US Treasury 10 Year and the 3 Month Yield. When the difference of these becomes negative, or ‘inverts’, has been an accurate indicator of an upcoming period of recession for over the last 40+ years.

The dip below the red line are the periods when the 3 Month yield was greater than the 10 Year. This graph is from 1/1983 thru mid September 2023.

Further analysis of this graph is seen below. The ovals highlight the inversion periods. The outlined columns illustrate the periods of U.S. recessions from 1983. The correlation between the two is remarkably consistent. Since 1983, there is a recession every time after the correction of an inversion.

Taking this analysis, the one logical step most shy away from in a publication, is to forecast the correction point of the current inversion. A complex Time-Series model using end of week close yield data for the time frame 1983 to mid-September 2023 results in some interesting insight. Keep in mind, as with all models, the information should be used only as ‘insight’ and a guide. The ‘red’ curve is the actual result of the basic subtraction of the two yields. The ‘aqua’ curve is the time-series analysis. The correlation between the two curves is a satisfactory R^2 of +0.95.

The forecast shows the re-cross into normal positive territory in March 2024. Therefore, based on historical trends, we should expect a recession, to some degree, within six months from then. As with all numerical models, there is a degree of uncertainty. In this model the upper error limit showed a ‘zero line’ re-cross in January 2024 and the lower error limit re-cross in mid-May 2024. It’s not a matter of if the inversion will be corrected, only when. After which, will history be repeated, or will this be a significant anomaly? I’m betting on history and hoping for a soft gradual landing. Forewarned is forearmed. Make wise decisions.

Posted in Current Events, Philosophy, Political

The Taproot of Racism Runs Deep…Don’t remain silent

Posted on by simplebender

In a Nation founded on the premise of White dominance, it is little wonder overt and covert racism runs rampant. This, unfortunately, is manifested so profoundly in our schools. This should be an embarrassment to and a lesson for every one of us. We and our children weren’t born racists. Racism is taught. We taught them, as our parents taught us. And our social, financial, legal, and educational systems support those incendiary teachings. To be clear, we are all racists, to some degree or another.

There are only a few types of racists. Those who are flagrant and overt and those who are silent and covert. Both racists, but one more troublesome than the other. I am less incensed by those who are flagrant racists and homophobes than I am with those who sit silently by and let the chastisement and harassment continue. The first is a group who are hardened and feel aggrieved by any minority advancement and want only to turn the pages of history back. The other stands idly by giving support and approval by their silence. It’s said a stupid person is the most dangerous type of person. However, a strong case can be made for a knowing person who remains silent in the face of abuse and harassment is much more dangerous and perpetuates the offense.

To the students and youth of the Nation. You represent our future. You have access to information your parents and grandparents never had, can’t understand, or arrogantly choose to ignore. Listen, observe, critique, and analyze everything you have been, and will be, taught. Don’t rely on anything, or anyone, without critically assessing all sides of the issue. Determine for yourselves what is right, just, and fair and then continue to viscously challenge your own conclusions. Above all else, take your school and community back. Don’t be silent. Silence is tacit support and approval. Let your voice be heard. Call out and be intolerant of racial and gender slurs and harassment the second they happen. Support and befriend those who are targets. Be intolerant to this abuse as you would any abuse. Use the tools uniquely at your disposal. Utilize social media, in your school paper, and your school clubs and organizations to support the victims and take the power away from the perpetrators. Express your disapproval of teachers and administrators who fail to act. Expect more accountability. Have the moral compass and moral fiber to do what’s right to break the chain of abuse. Don’t ever be satisfied with the status quo because it is inherently and systematically racist.

To my white brothers and sisters, I’ll be as blunt as possible. We are a product and beneficiary of the Nation’s Anglo centric beliefs and social systems. We have never experienced racial intolerance to the extent those of any color have and probably never will. To be very clear, we are not the victim of racial discrimination, no matter how much affirmative action. We, collectively, have not suffered or experienced racial stress. No matter how personally affronted and insulted you might be with the slightest form of racial ridicule you feel it is dwarfed by that which minorities have and are experiencing every day and have experienced since the formation of the Nation. It is systemic and toxic and holding back this country’s ability to reach new heights and achievements. And for god’s sake, stop looking and hoping for the next ‘Great White Hope’ because she/he might be an LGBTQ of any color.

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Posted in Current Events, Philosophy, Political

Who Represents the Folks in the Middle?

Posted on by simplebender

The mid-terms and the delayed State of the Union are over, and we really need to ask; is there no middle ground? The far left and right are controlling their party’s. Extremism, unrelenting and unwavering, has crippled a divided country and our legislative bodies.  There isn’t any effort to compromise for fear of alienating ‘the base’. Our discourse is based on misinformation and fear with little or no supporting facts.  They have become elevated shouting monologs.  Who represents the folks in the middle?

The inconvenient truth is:  It’s our own fault.  We’ve let it happen.  We’ve disenfranchised ourselves.  We surround ourselves with those who think, sound, and act like ourselves.  We are comfortable being with ourselves and very uncomfortable with being with someone different.  We like our tribe.  We have become voters who focus on singular issues and will support whoever promotes that special interest. Because of single issue extremism we now vote against, rather than for, someone.  It no longer matters there are no fact-based debates and ‘facts’ are made up and unchecked.  This type of support blinds us to all other aspects of the person.  It’s now acceptable to lie to the public on a wide range of issues, as long as the special interest is supported.  It’s alright to harass, bully, and ridicule people, publicly and privately, who don’t agree with you.  We have turned a blind eye to and given tacit approval for unacceptable behavior.  We now live by the standard: ‘the means justify the end’; it doesn’t matter whose hurt if we win.

We, the folks in the middle, want someone who understands that centralism is needed to govern.  We need representatives who understand and encourage differences of opinion and the calm civil debate of all those positions.  We must support civility, honesty, and disagreement.  We want statesmen rather than politicians.  People with whom we may honestly disagree with on some issues as well as agree on others; but on balance believe the person wants to make this country and state better for the whole not just the fringe.

We need leaders and representatives who build collaborative alliances, not defensive bastions, to advance solutions for the population at large.   Statesmen who believe in and practice principle centered leadership.  Who aren’t afraid of not being re-elected, but willing to do what’s right. They should stop encouraging public chastisement of people.  They should aggressively, and publicly, reject any and all forms of discrimination and ridicule.  All sides matter in these discussions of our future, not just the loud ones and/or the ones from their base.  They should listen and propose legislation which is balanced and for the common good.

We are diverse population and are stronger by embracing our diversity.  Growing because of our diversity, not in-spite it.  We in the middle understand change and respect are necessary to move forward, as individuals, as a state, as a nation.   We know you can’t move forward if you can’t let go of the past.  We are the majority and yet our voices are shouted down, and opinions summarily dismissed.  This representative republic can do better.  We must not sit idly by while the country is bisected.  We must do better if we want someone to represent us.  It’s up to us.  Let’s first represent ourselves better and stop condoning unacceptable behavior.  #NeverFearTheDream

 

 

Posted in Current Events, Philosophy

I Know…

Posted on by simplebender
Standing in line at the Post Office the week before Christmas is always fun; it’s the people.  Complete strangers sharing the plague of the queue, weary arms hugging overweight packages, and more than knowimagewilling to engage in conversation to pass the time in line.  It was the guy wearing the unbelievable holiday sweater who caught my eye and then my ear.  He was pontificating, to anyone who would listen, on his  knowledge of domestic and international politics and his disgruntlement with recent cabinet selections.   A demure woman commented about how worldly his knowledge was and that obviously he had traveled extensively.  To her surprise, he told her he had never been outside of the state.
I paused to ponder his acclaimed knowledge.  And then, contemplated my own; and asked myself, ‘what do I really know?’  Not just believe, but know.  I’m reasonably well educated, thanks to my folks (really I’ve not squandered my college education, really…).  I’ve seen a lot.  I’m reasonably well read, or so my library would imply.  I’ve traveled from north of the arctic circle to below the equator and to 4 continents. I’ve heard a lot more than I care to, especially from folks who don’t know.  I’ve been told a lot.  And, I guess I’ve experienced a lot.
 
But, through it all, what do I really know.  What I’ve heard and read can be easily discounted as opinion, except for most of my engineering; some of which is now changing.  Main stream media is biased, slanted, unabashedly opinionated, and cares more about being first than being right.  Social media  is an unreliable, unverifiable, and an interesting  social experiment.  What I’ve seen, is only really good from the perspective I viewed the scene.  What I’ve experienced is influenced by my perspective on the event and my collective experiences in life. 
What I’ve resolved is this;  for all I think I know simply shows me how much I don’t know; and the more I know, the more I know I don’t know…..
There will always be that which I simply believe; but, what I do know; is that I’m not going to believe the guy in the ugly sweater…..