Sometimes you just don’t need words….
No Words Needed…..
Sometimes you just don’t need words….
Author: simplebender
William C. Barron is a published author of Joy in Alzheimer's, Lap Around the Sun, numerous technical articles and a regular guest columnist in regional news outlets. This blog (simplebender.com) has garnered an international readership across the United States, Canada, Europe, and Asia.
Graduating from The University of Texas and now a retired petroleum engineer, William brings decades of global experience, having worked professionally on three continents—above the Arctic Circle and below the Equator. His career has spanned roles from offshore roustabout to engineer, operations manager, and senior corporate executive. He also served as Director of the Oil and Gas Division for the State of Alaska. Currently, he is the Principal of Trispectrum Consulting. He is a co-holder of several patents and has provided expert testimony before state legislatures and at numerous public forums.
Outside of his professional achievements, William is a seasoned endurance athlete. He has represented Team USA at multiple ITU Duathlon World Championships, completed the Boston Marathon, and finished numerous half-Ironman and Ironman events.
....always seeking... always learning....
Be Bold.....Never Fear the Dream.....Stand for Truth
It’s coming…Brace for Impact…Next Recession
The winds of the storm continue to raise the waves and tide crashing on our horizon. While a large body of economists and political leaders have sounded the ‘all-clear’ for a recession. To avoid one, regardless of the intensity, will have to buck historical financial trends and the current state of the economy. The historically reliable bond rate comparison indicates a recession is likely and the forecast indicates before mid-year 2024. Maybe that’s why the ‘all-clear’ has been signaled, it is too far out in time.
The FRED recently updated the U.S. Recession Probability curve (Are we in a recession (yet)? | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)) waving the green flag. With the August 2023 update FRED is posting a probability of a recession being almost negligible. Look closely at the graph, all the recessions (grey areas) have gone from 0% to 100% probability in a matter of months, not quarters. That’s like saying the chance of rain is 100% only if you are getting wet; otherwise it’s a sunny day.
There are other economic headwinds buffeting the markets. The Business confidence index has fallen to its lowest point since July 2020 after climbing out of the COVID slump.(Leading indicators – Business confidence index (BCI) – OECD Data). Juxtaposed to the Consumer Confidence Index which has risen steadily from a low in July 2022 (Leading indicators – Consumer confidence index (CCI) – OECD Data).
Unemployment remains low, which is good, but complicates the historical model analysis. While inflation has dropped it remains stubborn to further decline. The FED continues to tighten the interest rate with at least a few more increases expected. Banks are reluctant to issue loans to individuals and small companies. Smaller companies are being forced into a leveraged position by using private equity companies at elevated payment requirements. Even more simply, consumers are cutting back big ticket items, home purchases, higher end grocery items, travel, and gifts. Spending money on only what is needed, not just wanted. Credit cards are being excessively leveraged and delinquencies are increasing. The personal financial tsunami waiting to happen with those bills, plus extraordinarily high interest rates, could be devastating.
There is good financial news too. Inflation is down from its earlier highs in the last few years. As well as the supply chain, it is finally unwinding.
A predictive tool which has shown remarkable accuracy is plotting the difference between the US Treasury 10 Year and the 3 Month Yield. When the difference of these becomes negative, or ‘inverts’, has been an accurate indicator of an upcoming period of recession for over the last 40+ years.
The dip below the red line are the periods when the 3 Month yield was greater than the 10 Year. This graph is from 1/1983 thru mid September 2023.
Further analysis of this graph is seen below. The ovals highlight the inversion periods. The outlined columns illustrate the periods of U.S. recessions from 1983. The correlation between the two is remarkably consistent. Since 1983, there is a recession every time after the correction of an inversion.
Taking this analysis, the one logical step most shy away from in a publication, is to forecast the correction point of the current inversion. A complex Time-Series model using end of week close yield data for the time frame 1983 to mid-September 2023 results in some interesting insight. Keep in mind, as with all models, the information should be used only as ‘insight’ and a guide. The ‘red’ curve is the actual result of the basic subtraction of the two yields. The ‘aqua’ curve is the time-series analysis. The correlation between the two curves is a satisfactory R^2 of +0.95.
The forecast shows the re-cross into normal positive territory in March 2024. Therefore, based on historical trends, we should expect a recession, to some degree, within six months from then. As with all numerical models, there is a degree of uncertainty. In this model the upper error limit showed a ‘zero line’ re-cross in January 2024 and the lower error limit re-cross in mid-May 2024. It’s not a matter of if the inversion will be corrected, only when. After which, will history be repeated, or will this be a significant anomaly? I’m betting on history and hoping for a soft gradual landing. Forewarned is forearmed. Make wise decisions. #NeverFearTheDream
The Final Promise:…..Do Your Best, Always
Fourth of a four-part series based on “The Four Agreements – A Toltec Wisdom Book”, by Ruiz
There are four personal promises which might transform your life. This is the fourth, and hardest, of these promises. Promise to:
- Choose your words carefully;
- Take nothing personally;
- Never make assumptions;
- Do your best, always.
Your third personal promise –Do your best, always:
The simplest promise will be the hardest to keep, if no other reason than you will lie to yourself. Your best; a simple concept, or is it? Your best will be different, for the same task, every time you attempt it. It will be different when you are sick verses healthy, rested versus tired, etc. Circumstances don’t matter, just do your best and be honest about your effort. By honestly doing your best you will avoid regret, self-deprecation, and self-judgement.
Everything in life is in flux. Therefore, so is your ‘best’. Sometimes your best will be high quality at other times, not as good in comparison. The promise is, regardless of the circumstances, to do no more and no less than your best, on the moment. Trying to do more than your best will expend unnecessary energy and, in the end, may not yield any better result. Doing less is simply breaking your promise and opening yourself to regret and self-doubt. It doesn’t matter if you are sick, tired, healthy, or refreshed, your best is your best.
You do your best because it’s the right thing to do not for any external reward, but to the integral reward of self fulfilment. Too many perform tasks for an external reward. Doing the arduous, unfulfilling tasks for a raise, a promotion, or to impress. Doing tasks at the best of your ability for yourself is satisfying and will usually result in intangible as well as tangible benefits. The most intangible benefit is you will be happy with yourself. And these days this is very important.
This promise underpins all the others. If you fail this one the others are destined to fail as well. When you do your best you learn to accept and appreciate yourself. You learn how to press and expand your limits and horizons expand. You will enjoy the moment. You will be able to find something to enjoy even in the hardest times. You will find doing your best enables you to keep your other promises. It will be easier to find impeccable words, to not take anything personally, and to not make assumptions. All because you are doing your best to keep those promises.
However, just know you will fail and break these promises. And that’s ok. At least you are trying. You learn more from failure than you do from success. Give yourself a break and honestly recognize your failures. Embrace them and recommit to the promises. Recommit even for an hour, a day, a week. The time will extend with every re-commitment. Your life and the lives of those you care about will improve.
Thanks for your interest and reading….#NeverFearTheDream
Third Promise…Never Make Assumptions
Third of a four-part series based on “The Four Agreements – A Toltec Wisdom Book”, by Ruiz
There are four personal promises which might transform your life. This is the third of these promises. Promise to:
Your third personal promise –Never make assumptions:
Clear communication with others, at best, is complicated and difficult. Be curious and courageous by asking them questions without making assumptions. Don’t think you know the width and breadth of their comments without asking them questions. The real danger of assumptions is we believe they are true without discovery. They are based on your experience and are likely to be significantly different than the speakers’ intent and direction.
The sadness and drama we witness, and experience is rooted in us making assumptions and taking things personally (breaking our second promise). It is always better to listen empathically and ask questions rather than setting yourself up for pain by assuming. We see and hear what we want to based on our experiences, motivations, and fear. We don’t want to hear anything contrary. We perceive things the way we want , not necessarily how they really are or how others see them.
Our biggest assumption is believing everyone sees life the same way as ourselves. Assume they think the way we think, feel and judge the same way. Or worse yet, we believe they should. Assuming our common experiences overshadow our uncommon ones, which are the ones which make us unique in a society. We must ask and probe to uncover peoples’ real meaning and intent. We simply cannot assume what they are.
Making assumptions in a relationship is more likely to result in conflict rather than accord. They will lead to more misunderstandings, difficulties, and suffering with those we care for than anyone else. We must have the courage to ask them questions before we embark on justifying and explaining to make ourselves feel safe. Make them feel safe first by truly understanding their intent and meaning. You shouldn’t fear being yourself with your loved ones. Love them unconditionally. We are all different and our task isn’t to change them but accept them; as we want them to accept us.
Keep yourself focused on not making assumptions by practicing asking questions and being interested; not judgmental. As you begin to learn how easy it can be to ask questions you will find it easier to ask for what you want as well. Everyone has the right not to answer your questions, but you will never really know unless you initiate the questions.
UP NEXT: DO YOUR BEST, ALWAYS #NeverFearTheDream
Four Personal Promises: Second…. Take Nothing Personally
Second of a four-part series based on “The Four Agreements – A Toltec Wisdom Book”, by Ruiz
There are four personal promises which might transform your life. This is the second of these promises. Promise to:
- Choose your words carefully;
- Take nothing personally;
- Never make assumptions;
- Do your best, always.
Your second personal promise –Take nothing personally:
This world doesn’t revolve around you. It just doesn’t. Your delusional perspective of your personal importance is an expression of your selfishness. What others do and say is a reflection of their reality, which you should respect, but don’t assume it has anything to do with you.
By taking things personally you set yourself up for failure, suffering, abuse, easily become prey, and suffer for nothing. You unnecessarily absorb the pain of others reality. By taking things personally you feel offended and therefore must defend yourself and your beliefs. But do you really have to? If you keep your promise you will acknowledge those words reflect the speaker not you. They probably didn’t keep their first promise which means you must keep your second.
Your point of view is yours just as theirs is theirs. Their words don’t have to be your truth and certainly not worth getting mad or angry about. Getting mad, angry, and defensive discloses your fears and insecurities. Their words have affected you because you choose to let them, not because you are the target. You choose to be a victim. Rather, listen and try to assess what is behind their words. What is making them angry and upset. Don’t add to it by trying to defend yourself.
Watch people and determine if their words follow their action; or are they just lying to you. Don’t expect people to always tell the whole truth, sometimes it’s just too painful, doesn’t fit their agenda, or they are just afraid. If they are lying, there is clearly no reason for you to take what they say personally.
The caveat to this promise is: if your actions or words have caused them pain, suffering, or damage you need to accept responsibility. You need to acknowledge you’ve hurt them, personally, and in fact you must take their words personally and make restitutions.
UP NEXT: NEVER MAKE ASSUMPTIONS #NeverFearTheDream
Four Personal Promises
First of a four-part series based on “The Four Agreements – A Tolec Wisdom Book”, by Ruiz
There are four personal promises which might transform your life. Easily made and so hard to keep; like most promises. These promises are to yourself for yourself. No one will know if you’ve kept them or not; only you, and you are the only one who counts. Promise to:
- Choose your words carefully;
- Take nothing personally;
- Never make assumptions;
- Do your best, always.
Your first personal promise –Choose your words carefully:
The words you speak or write reflect you for all the world to hear and see. Say what you mean; not what you think others want to hear. Express the truth without deriding or belittling anyone, especially yourself.
Your words are your power. They can build as easily as they can destroy. They are your force in the world. Your power to communicate and express your beliefs and opinions. But remember, they are your beliefs and opinions, not others. They are formed from your experiences, your beliefs, your aspirations, and especially by your ego.
Your words can be enduring, so be careful. Those who hear and read your words are absorbing and growing. They are trying to grow and learn just as you are. Your words can be thoughtful, inspiring, and uplifting. They can also be shallow, self-serving, hateful, and spread fear. There is enough of the later and not enough of the former. If your words spread hate, maybe just maybe you should keep them to yourself.
They are swords which can cut deeply in both ways. On one side the edge of truth and dignity. On the other, hate and lies. As you wield your sword be keenly aware of which blade is cutting. You are responsible for choosing your words. If your words express hope, support, and are uplifting you show yourself honorable and a person of integrity. If your words spread gossip, or seek revenge, you are showing the world your pettiness and shallowness. You are responsible for when and where you brandish your sword. Reflect upon your words before you express them. Choose your words carefully as they become you to others. You will be revered or reviled both at the same time. If you’ve chosen well with impeccability, you won’t have any regrets. Choose to hold your tongue rather than force others to hold their ears. #NeverFearTheDream
Defend the Freedom to Read
Freedom to Read is an inalienable right. A right inherent and integral to the freedom of the press. Freedom to read allows all citizens access to the marketplace of ideas. The freedom of expression and the press falls mute when freedom to receive the material is repressed.
This right is under attack by those who want to control what is available for us to read. They endeavor to protect their comfort and their right to choose while sacrificing everyone else’s. Everyone’s liberty to choose, to seek knowledge and information, as well as the investigation of ideas should be respected. Those who believe contrary ideas should be banned are dangerous people. They are those who cannot deal with controversy and the whole truth. Information is power. Writings are torches in the darkness.
Those who choose to ban and censor books and print are destined for disappointment. You cannot ban and censor ideas forever. Ideas have a fire unto themselves which is uncontrollable and inextinguishable. They will emerge. They will grow. The victors write history, not the vanquished. The story of the conquered eventually is told and the victors held accountable when the whole truth is known. Those who choose to try to control, ban, and censor today should be prepared for the inevitable reversal of fate. This is a sad vicious cycle which should never have started. But it is a cycle which we can resist and one which must be stopped. It is contradictory to profess support of Freedom of the Press and simultaneously restrict and ban publications.
Stand up; defend and exercise your freedom to read, your freedom to write, your freedom to express individual thoughts and ideas. Encourage open publication and distribution without fear of the censor’s blade. Only when citizens explore the full range of human thought and emotion, weighing all perspectives in the balance, can we truly govern ourselves and claim our democratic birthright. Let’s openly, respectfully, grapple with challenging ideas and controversial subject matter. Push yourself to be uncomfortable, very uncomfortable. Then draw your own conclusions. Conclusions based on broad thoughts, not narrow ones. Information wants to be free. It cannot forever be restrained or repressed. Be brave, be willing to defend expression of ideas, regardless of how much you disagree with them. Resist those in power who want to try to extinguish this flame by censorship and banning. Support the authors who persist. Those who write the truth to, and in spite, of power. Those who present ideas and options to the masses, and let them think it all through. Read for pleasure, adventure, insight, and intrigue, but always fiercely defend the Freedom to Read. #NeverFearTheDream
If you find this article interesting or maybe challenging, please see some more of my musing at simplebender.medium.com. Please consider following me and never miss an article…Stay well
Scapegoat Politics: Clear Sign of Shallow Policy
Scapegoat politics is a clear sign there is no positive, problem-solving agenda associated with the candidate or party. It is a simple means of distraction and diversion. Propagation of blame, fear, hate, and misinformation. Casting blame is an insidious, malicious, and effective way to avoid confronting today’s real systemic problems. Politicians, leaders, candidates, and people in general who practice it aren’t worthy of our support. They are either afraid to confront critical issues or don’t have any idea how to address them, without risking the rath of their cult like followers. Simply, they follow the practice of: if you can’t solve it find someone to blame and be relentless in the accusations.
Scapegoating isn’t new. It’s been hyper-weaponized courtesy of the many mass media venues. Hitler had the Jews. He had no idea how to solve Germany’s hyperinflation and the crumbling living standards. But he had the Jews to blame for all of it. Syria’s Assad and Turkey’s Erdogan both have the Kurds, poor Kurds, to blame all their domestic calamities upon. They have suffered brutal consequences as a result.
Domestically, we are no different and our critical issues receive scant lip service. The Conservatives deride wokeness, China, and liberal ‘fake news’. Progressives blame ills on police unions, the 1%ers, and corporate greed. Florida’s Governor vilifies the LGBTQ’s and immigrants. The past executive energized hate toward the immigrants, even though he himself is one generation away. And today, he is scapegoating the DOJ while narcissistically playing the victim while fleecing his flock. Whining about unsupported claims of the past to shield to deflect against his own actions, indictments, and convictions.
You cannot solve problems by blaming others. It demonstrates a leadership devoid of forward thought, problem-solving, and critical thinking. We need to identify and address the real problems. We should seriously confront and address systematic, institutionalized, racism. Where’s the action toward eliminating mass shooting and gun violence? All the ‘thoughts and prayers’, shallowly offered, are falling on deaf and dead ears. Addiction and death related to illicit fentanyl and prescription opioids is killing us. Where is the hard look at why so many of our neighbors are addicted and abusing drugs? Rather than focus on the problem, it is easier to blame and demonize southern immigrants. Forget the fact most of them are escaping violence and terror and only a scant few are smugglers.
The scapegoat du jour is the LGBTQ community. Attacking a group because they aren’t like you and you don’t understand them. Blaming and viciously attacking them on embellished accusations of child grooming and abuse. If legislators really want to address this issue, they could start by focusing on the authoritarian leadership of the Catholic and Southern Baptists. These have a long well documented history of child molestation and abuse. This would require extreme courage and risk of losing political power. So, don’t expect anything but more Gay Bashing and book banning. It’s so much easier and politically safe.
Political failure and shallow policy making can be measured by increasing authoritarianism, and scapegoating. Used to mobilize the uninformed and easily manipulated. Stop blaming and start addressing critical issues. Take responsibility, be accountable, and confront serious issues sans scapegoating. Those political figures who won’t stop blaming others and using them as diversions don’t deserve our support; none of them. #NeverFearTheDream
Leadership Lessons From Parenting
There are so many lessons you can learn from Parenting. So many can and should be applied to Leadership.
Lesson: Be present, be calm, be patient, and listen to them;
Employees need you to be there for them. They need you to be present. They need you to be calm and patient and they desperately need you to listen to them. New and senior employees look toward you for support and guidance. They need you to be calm in the face of any calamity. To show limitless patience and support. Also, they have ideas and perspectives which need to be heard and considered. Don’t miss an opportunity to learn just because you are the boss.
Lesson: Let them stumble, fall, and fail; help them up and coach, don’t fix;
As painful as it might be, a good leader will let their staff stumble, fall and fail. The key will be to prove to them you will be there to help pick them up and coach them, guide them. Don’t yield to the extreme temptation of simply fix the problem. Show them they have the insight and capability of resolving the issue, even after a fall.
Lesson: Grow with them before you find yourself treating them as inferior;
Employees grow with every task and especially those they stumbled through. A leader must recognize this growth and maturity. Acknowledge this increasing capability with ever more challenging assignments. Holding them to the same level of tasks shows them you haven’t grown in an appreciation of their capabilities. They will continue to grow in spite of you. Or, they will meet your level of expectation and you both will fail; and it is your fault.
Lesson: No matter what, no matter when, no matter where—just support;
Commit yourself to publicly supporting them, no matter what, when, or where. They rely on your public support and your private constructive criticism. Show your public support, they will follow your lead and support you. Criticize publicly and expect the same in return, or worse behind your back.
Lesson: Don’t play favorites;
Every employee is unique and special. Each has amazing talents as well as faults. Don’t play favorites. Find within each how they best can aid the organization and praise the hell out of what they do. Help each with their unique weakness while they exercise their strengths. Everyone has a key role. Yours is to not play favorites as this will undoubtably be divisive and failure is eminent.
Lesson: There is a forest amidst the trees, sometimes you don’t need to sweat the small stuff;
It is so easy for an employee to focus on the minutia. Help them understand there is a bigger picture. The small parts, while important, must be addressed with the larger objective in view. They are solving a critical part of the whole, but they must know what the whole really is. It’s not their fault if their creative solution is counter to the global objective. There are many solutions to all problems. Let them in on the secret and let them devise solutions to support it.
Lesson: Leadership just as Parenting is something you GET to do every day, not HAVE to do
It’s a privilege to be a leader. If you don’t think so, you shouldn’t be one. You GET to help guide and grow people to be better than they were. You GET to learn from a wide diverse group and then impart knowledge to others. Leadership is an opportunity to grow their future which you GET to champion. None of these you HAVE to do; but, if you feel they are mandatory obligations you shouldn’t be a leader.
Remember, YOU are their example; no pressure……
#NeverFearTheDream
Critical Thinking: Let’s Rethink This
There’s been quite the ferment about Critical Thinking in the last several years. Unfortunately, it is being misrepresented and becoming a lost skill. Critical Thinking is Deep Thinking. It doesn’t come easy, especially in this world of instant gratification and distractions. It is quite often emotionally painful. Critical Thinking forces you to challenge some (all) core beliefs. You may find them to be deceptions or myths. It can push you past the survival thinking mindset we tend to find ourselves entrapped. It will certainly break through the status quo mindset which plagues us.
Embrace curiosity and become a lifelong learner. Don’t be satisfied with what you hear or see on the internet or TV. Force yourself to ask a simple question: ‘Does that really make sense?’. Start thinking, questioning, probing, and researching. Find out for yourself.
Become an active listener rather than an active talker. Listen to other viewpoints. Resist formulating your defense while those viewpoints are being presented. Have patience. Absorb their meaning and implications. Then, reflect on how your experiences support or reject them. When you express yourself, be reflective on what you’ve heard and be respectful.
Take your time in decision making and systematically solve problems. Dissect complex problems to solve them. Try to see the forest and the trees at the same time. The more difficult and complex the problem the more you need a diverse group to solve it. Reach out to others not in your comfort circle for their opinion, theirs might just be the key to resolution. And then, learn to pause before acting. Reflection beforehand can be invaluable.
Deep critical thinking requires a lot of self-reflection. It requires a willingness to accept your ideas, concepts, and beliefs might be wrong. As such, practice a little self-compassion too. Don’t be self-critical but be self-aware and willing to change, if change is needed. The first step is being willing to ask.
Critical thinking has been demonized because it has made a lot of people uncomfortable. The questions have probed long-held beliefs and institutional practices. That’s what you do when you practice Critical Deep Thinking. Relax and enjoy the mental and emotional challenges ahead. Your life will be better for the effort. #NeverFearTheDream
[I’m slowly migrating to Medium. You can find me at medium@simplebender.com. Please following me there and please tell your friends….I appreciate your reading and occational comments…….Stay well, be safe]
SimpleBender.....wcb 