Month: September 2025

Strip the politics and twisted morality from the equation and look at the ledger. Detain-and-deport is a bad deal, a bad business model. It is a capital-intensive, low-yield operation that consumes cash upfront and erases future revenue streams. ICE’s reports estimate 2024 detention at ~$152 per person per day, and Alternatives to Detention (ATD/ISAP) run less than $4.20/day. With an average detention time of ~47 days, costs are roughly $7,100 before airfare or litigation. The ATD analogue costs approximately $200. The ATD option is significantly more cost-effective. No operator would choose a bloated workflow over one that accomplishes the compliance goals, unless driven by ideology. [1][2][3]

What are the “savings” from deportation? They are mostly phantom fiction. Undocumented immigrants are largely ineligible for means-tested benefits (Medicare & SNAP) but do pay taxes—$96.7 billion in 2022. Every removal wave eliminates the systematic recurring cash flow to Social Security, Medicare, and state/local treasuries. That’s not ideology; it’s real revenue loss, which U.S. taxpayers must now cover. [4]

Scale it to policy. FY2024 removals: 271,484. Apply the per-diem and dwell time above, and you’re in multi-billion direct outlays—before transport—plus foregone taxes compounding each year that workers would have remained employed. The CBO is explicit and clear: higher immigration raises revenues faster than outlays and lowers deficits over the 2024–2034 period—those are good things. Shrinking the workforce via deportation pushes the other way—those are bad things. [5][6][7]

Now consider and add the 2025 capex binge. Florida’s “Alligator Alcatraz” chomped up $245M+ in contracts, faces $15–$20M in immediate shutdown costs, and could leave taxpayers with approximately $218M if closure holds. In Texas, the Fort Bliss complex is a $1.2–$1.26B build for a 5,000-bed camp. None of this produces tradable output; it locks in fixed costs for an already established inferior business model. [8][9][10][11]

Deportation supporters claim enforcement frees jobs for U.S. citizens. Reality check: key sectors (agriculture, construction, and manufacturing) depend on immigrant labor. In agriculture, roughly 42% of hired crop workers lack work authorization. Remove that labor at harvest and you don’t get higher yields; you get unpicked fields and lost revenue—exactly what state-level crackdowns have shown. Construction and parts of manufacturing tell similar stories: persistent vacancies and delayed projects don’t resolve themselves without labor—but look, ICE just booked another flight. [12]

Crucially, there’s a proven substitute. Case-management ATD programs deliver 97–99% court-appearance compliance at a fraction of detention costs. If the goal is rule-of-law compliance, ATD wins on both price and performance. Detention should be the exception for demonstrably high-risk cases. [13][14][15]

If you’re genuinely fiscally conservative, the decision tree is simple. Each detained-then-deported worker carries:

•  a high acquisition cost (detention, transport, litigation, facilities),
•  negative NPV from lost tax receipts, and
•  sector-level output losses when crops aren’t picked or projects slip.

In contrast, ATD + lawful work authorization during proceedings flips the script:

• minimal custody costs,

(2) continued tax payments, and

(3) fewer supply-side shocks.

Even hard-line models concede that mass deportation shrinks GDP by the trillions. The Penn Wharton Budget Model, a conservative economic model, concedes that mass deportation shrinks GDP by trillions—that’s a bad thing—and projects primary deficits of approximately $862–$987B over 10 years under mass deportation scenarios. That’s the destruction of U.S. shareholder value.[16][17]

If this were optimizing a business, you’d terminate detention first, scale case management ATD, and reserve deportation for the narrow slice where public safety benefits justify the expenditure. Anything else is a bad deal and taxpayer-subsidized ideology—that’s not a good thing. #NeverFearTheDream

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Footnotes

[1] U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, “Alternatives to Detention (ATD)” — < $4.20/day ATD vs ~$152/day detention. ICE
[2] ICE, Fiscal Year 2024 Annual Report — average length of stay 46.9 days. (PDF) ICE
[3] American Immigration Council, “Alternatives to Immigration Detention: An Overview.” American Immigration Council+1
[4] Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), “Tax Payments by Undocumented Immigrants” — $96.7B in 2022. ITEP
[5] ICE news release (Dec. 20, 2024): 271,484 removals in FY2024. ICE
[6] Congressional Budget Office, “Effects of the Immigration Surge on the Federal Budget and the Economy” — higher immigration lowers deficits via revenues > outlays. Congressional Budget Office+1
[7] ICE, “FY2024 Annual Report” companion release. ICE
[8] AP News, “Florida may lose $218M on empty ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ as judge orders shutdown.” AP News+1
[9] CBS Miami, “Florida taxpayers could be on the hook for $218 million … ‘Alligator Alcatraz.’” CBS News+1
[10] Yahoo News round-ups on court-ordered shutdown and wind-down. Yahoo+1
[11] The Texas Tribune, “Feds plan to build nation’s biggest migrant detention center at Fort Bliss” — $1.26B, 5,000 beds. The Texas Tribune
[12] U.S. Dept. of Labor, NAWS 2021–2022 (Report No. 17) — ~42% of hired crop workers lack work authorization; summary page. DOL+1
[13] Human Rights First, “Proven Alternatives to Mass Incarceration of Families” — programs with ~97% appearance; cost far below detention. (PDF/brief) Human Rights First+1
[14] Women’s Refugee Commission, Family Case Management Program — ~99% compliance with ICE and court. (Report/summary) Women’s Refugee Commission+1
[15] National Immigrant Justice Center, “The Real Alternatives to Detention.” (Policy brief) National Immigrant Justice Center
[16] American Action Forum, “The Budgetary and Economic Costs of Addressing Unauthorized Immigration” & “A Costly Immigration Policy” — $400–$600B federal cost; −$1.6T GDP. AAF+1
[17] Penn Wharton Budget Model, “Mass Deportation of Unauthorized Immigrants: Fiscal and Economic Effects” — revenues −$300.4B (2025–2034); primary deficits +$862B pre-feedback, +$987B with feedback. (Brief & PDF) Penn Wharton Budget Model+1