Month: September 2023

Posted in Joy In Alzheimer's, Philosophy

Joy In Alzheimer’s

Posted on by simplebender

Prologue

Let’s just be honest; there is no joy in Alzheimer’s; however, Joy, my mom, is in the middle of it….so ‘Joy In Alzheimer’s’ is where we are. This is an attempt to follow her through this unwinnable battle. To open-up about how the mental disease affects her and those who care and love her. So, how did her long journey down a narrowing path come to this point. A path which no longer has a safety net. Where every stumble, on her old uncertain legs and weakened mind, can lead to uncontrolled dementia and deep dark recesses.

Joy’s road, like most with Alzheimer’s, started long before anyone really knew. My dad passed away over 15 years ago and since then Joy has lived alone. My nephew and his family lived nearby for several years. To their credit they reported subtle changes in her mental abilities. Being remote, the rest of the family dismissed the observations as ‘she’s just getting older’. Six years ago, we moved her from her west Texas home of over 50 years to an independent living facility in central Oregon. Now closer, we could see some subtle changes which age alone couldn’t explain. Three falls, with head injury, just compounded the problem. She began to lose the ability to pay bills and her ‘book-keeping’ went from taking a few hours to taking a few weeks.

We took her to a neurologist under the pretext of getting a baseline assessment after her third fall. The appointment went well. The neurologist wasn’t overly concerned with her cognitive test results. The diagnosis changed at the next appointment six months later. The doctor was concerned with the delusional episodes, the money management deterioration, but the illustration below sort of tipped the scales.

Within six months we had moved her to an assisted living facility, before the independent one was forced to ask us to move her. That’s where she is now and has been for over a year and a half; even though she’ll tell you she just moved in and has changed apartments five or six times, and the entire complex has been rotated around several times.

This was the start of our journey with her down that long narrowing path. We have found humor, character, courage, and sadness along the way. I’m sure we will find more as we continue. These will be the stories I tell, and I’m always interested in comments and support as we try to help each other. We are all on journeys and we shouldn’t judge the paths we are all on. We should just extend a hand and help. You never know, you might be the safety net so many of those with Alzheimer’s and those who are their care partners really need.

The Full story of Joy in Alzheimer’s can be found at:

Joy in Alzheimer’s: My Mom’s Brave walk into dymentia’s abyss

NeverFearTheDream simplebender.com @simplebender.bsky.social Stand For Truth

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Posted in Philosophy

No Words Needed…..

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Sometimes you just don’t need words….

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Posted in Current Events

It’s coming…Brace for Impact…Next Recession

Posted on by simplebender

The winds of the storm continue to raise the waves and tide crashing on our horizon. While a large body of economists and political leaders have sounded the ‘all-clear’ for a recession. To avoid one, regardless of the intensity, will have to buck historical financial trends and the current state of the economy. The historically reliable bond rate comparison indicates a recession is likely and the forecast indicates before mid-year 2024. Maybe that’s why the ‘all-clear’ has been signaled, it is too far out in time.

The FRED recently updated the U.S. Recession Probability curve (Are we in a recession (yet)? | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)) waving the green flag. With the August 2023 update FRED is posting a probability of a recession being almost negligible. Look closely at the graph, all the recessions (grey areas) have gone from 0% to 100% probability in a matter of months, not quarters. That’s like saying the chance of rain is 100% only if you are getting wet; otherwise it’s a sunny day.

There are other economic headwinds buffeting the markets. The Business confidence index has fallen to its lowest point since July 2020 after climbing out of the COVID slump.(Leading indicators – Business confidence index (BCI) – OECD Data). Juxtaposed to the Consumer Confidence Index which has risen steadily from a low in July 2022 (Leading indicators – Consumer confidence index (CCI) – OECD Data).

Unemployment remains low, which is good, but complicates the historical model analysis. While inflation has dropped it remains stubborn to further decline. The FED continues to tighten the interest rate with at least a few more increases expected. Banks are reluctant to issue loans to individuals and small companies. Smaller companies are being forced into a leveraged position by using private equity companies at elevated payment requirements. Even more simply, consumers are cutting back big ticket items, home purchases, higher end grocery items, travel, and gifts. Spending money on only what is needed, not just wanted. Credit cards are being excessively leveraged and delinquencies are increasing. The personal financial tsunami waiting to happen with those bills, plus extraordinarily high interest rates, could be devastating.

There is good financial news too. Inflation is down from its earlier highs in the last few years. As well as the supply chain, it is finally unwinding.

A predictive tool which has shown remarkable accuracy is plotting the difference between the US Treasury 10 Year and the 3 Month Yield. When the difference of these becomes negative, or ‘inverts’, has been an accurate indicator of an upcoming period of recession for over the last 40+ years.

The dip below the red line are the periods when the 3 Month yield was greater than the 10 Year. This graph is from 1/1983 thru mid September 2023.

Further analysis of this graph is seen below. The ovals highlight the inversion periods. The outlined columns illustrate the periods of U.S. recessions from 1983. The correlation between the two is remarkably consistent. Since 1983, there is a recession every time after the correction of an inversion.

Taking this analysis, the one logical step most shy away from in a publication, is to forecast the correction point of the current inversion. A complex Time-Series model using end of week close yield data for the time frame 1983 to mid-September 2023 results in some interesting insight. Keep in mind, as with all models, the information should be used only as ‘insight’ and a guide. The ‘red’ curve is the actual result of the basic subtraction of the two yields. The ‘aqua’ curve is the time-series analysis. The correlation between the two curves is a satisfactory R^2 of +0.95.

The forecast shows the re-cross into normal positive territory in March 2024. Therefore, based on historical trends, we should expect a recession, to some degree, within six months from then. As with all numerical models, there is a degree of uncertainty. In this model the upper error limit showed a ‘zero line’ re-cross in January 2024 and the lower error limit re-cross in mid-May 2024. It’s not a matter of if the inversion will be corrected, only when. After which, will history be repeated, or will this be a significant anomaly? I’m betting on history and hoping for a soft gradual landing. Forewarned is forearmed. Make wise decisions.

Posted in Philosophy

The Final Promise:…..Do Your Best, Always

Posted on by simplebender

Fourth of a four-part series based on “The Four Agreements – A Toltec Wisdom Book”, by Ruiz

There are four personal promises which might transform your life. This is the fourth, and hardest, of these promises. Promise to:

  • Choose your words carefully;
  • Take nothing personally;
  • Never make assumptions;
  • Do your best, always.

Your third personal promise –Do your best, always:

The simplest promise will be the hardest to keep, if no other reason than you will lie to yourself. Your best; a simple concept, or is it? Your best will be different, for the same task, every time you attempt it. It will be different when you are sick verses healthy, rested versus tired, etc. Circumstances don’t matter, just do your best and be honest about your effort. By honestly doing your best you will avoid regret, self-deprecation, and self-judgement.

Everything in life is in flux. Therefore, so is your ‘best’. Sometimes your best will be high quality at other times, not as good in comparison. The promise is, regardless of the circumstances, to do no more and no less than your best, on the moment. Trying to do more than your best will expend unnecessary energy and, in the end, may not yield any better result. Doing less is simply breaking your promise and opening yourself to regret and self-doubt. It doesn’t matter if you are sick, tired, healthy, or refreshed, your best is your best.

You do your best because it’s the right thing to do not for any external reward, but to the integral reward of self fulfilment. Too many perform tasks for an external reward. Doing the arduous, unfulfilling tasks for a raise, a promotion, or to impress. Doing tasks at the best of your ability for yourself is satisfying and will usually result in intangible as well as tangible benefits. The most intangible benefit is you will be happy with yourself. And these days this is very important.

This promise underpins all the others. If you fail this one the others are destined to fail as well. When you do your best you learn to accept and appreciate yourself. You learn how to press and expand your limits and horizons expand. You will enjoy the moment. You will be able to find something to enjoy even in the hardest times. You will find doing your best enables you to keep your other promises. It will be easier to find impeccable words, to not take anything personally, and to not make assumptions. All because you are doing your best to keep those promises.

However, just know you will fail and break these promises. And that’s ok. At least you are trying. You learn more from failure than you do from success. Give yourself a break and honestly recognize your failures. Embrace them and recommit to the promises. Recommit even for an hour, a day, a week. The time will extend with every re-commitment. Your life and the lives of those you care about will improve.

Thanks for your interest and reading….#NeverFearTheDream


Posted in Philosophy

Third Promise…Never Make Assumptions

Posted on by simplebender

Third of a four-part series based on “The Four Agreements – A Toltec Wisdom Book”, by Ruiz

There are four personal promises which might transform your life. This is the third of these promises. Promise to:

Your third personal promise –Never make assumptions:

Clear communication with others, at best, is complicated and difficult. Be curious and courageous by asking them questions without making assumptions. Don’t think you know the width and breadth of their comments without asking them questions. The real danger of assumptions is we believe they are true without discovery. They are based on your experience and are likely to be significantly different than the speakers’ intent and direction.

The sadness and drama we witness, and experience is rooted in us making assumptions and taking things personally (breaking our second promise). It is always better to listen empathically and ask questions rather than setting yourself up for pain by assuming. We see and hear what we want to based on our experiences, motivations, and fear. We don’t want to hear anything contrary. We perceive things the way we want , not necessarily how they really are or how others see them.

Our biggest assumption is believing everyone sees life the same way as ourselves. Assume they think the way we think, feel and judge the same way. Or worse yet, we believe they should. Assuming our common experiences overshadow our uncommon ones, which are the ones which make us unique in a society. We must ask and probe to uncover peoples’ real meaning and intent. We simply cannot assume what they are.

Making assumptions in a relationship is more likely to result in conflict rather than accord. They will lead to more misunderstandings, difficulties, and suffering with those we care for than anyone else. We must have the courage to ask them questions before we embark on justifying and explaining to make ourselves feel safe. Make them feel safe first by truly understanding their intent and meaning. You shouldn’t fear being yourself with your loved ones. Love them unconditionally. We are all different and our task isn’t to change them but accept them; as we want them to accept us.

Keep yourself focused on not making assumptions by practicing asking questions and being interested; not judgmental. As you begin to learn how easy it can be to ask questions you will find it easier to ask for what you want as well. Everyone has the right not to answer your questions, but you will never really know unless you initiate the questions.

UP NEXT: DO YOUR BEST, ALWAYS